The four numbers that explain Bangladesh's US$48 billion export earnings for FY’26

Bangladesh's merchandise exports totaled US$48 billion in FY26, a marginal 0.58 percent decline from FY25, falling well short of the government's US$55 billion target, according to provisional data released by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). Despite ongoing global headwinds, June exports jumped 26 percent year-on-year to US$4.2 billion, providing a solid end to the fiscal year. The United States continued to be the top export market for Bangladesh, accounting for US$9.04 billion - a 4.09 percent increase - while Germany fell 10.8 percent to US$4.72 billion. Modest growth was recorded in the UK, Spain, and the Netherlands. However, there is a more complex narrative behind the headline figures. Here are the five numbers that explain what really happened.

US$48 billion: Holding Ground in a Storm

In a year marked by geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, energy market volatility, and subdued consumer demand in major markets, holding earnings near the previous year's level is no small feat. This stability was indicative of the "underlying strength and adaptability of the export sector," the EPB said.

But exporters noted a different reality. The United States' reciprocal tariffs, increased competition in European markets, lack of global demand, and fewer purchase orders before the national election were cited as the primary reasons for the decline. India and Vietnam will start exporting duty-free to the European market from January 2027, which will create new competition for Bangladesh.

26 percent: A June Surge, But Not What It Seems

Exports jumped 26 percent year-on-year to US$4.2 billion in June, with all major groups of goods seeing growth in ready-made garments (RMG), leather, jute, home textiles, engineering products, and agriculture. But context matters. The sharp increase is due to a low base effect, as Eid holidays were in May this year, but in June last year, exporters say, which meant 25-30 percent more working days for factories. It was not a real demand recovery, but a calendar quirk with positive momentum.

However, EPB remained hopeful that the June recovery, coupled with ongoing product and market diversification, would offer a solid base for FY27. June's external demand was broadly based, with all top 20 export markets seeing gains.

US$38.70 billion: The Cost of Keeping RMG Afloat

The garment sector, accounting for over 80 percent of exports, earned US$38.70 billion – down 1.64 percent from FY25. Exports of knitwear increased by 19.49 percent in June, and woven garments by 24.02 percent, although the year-on-year figures were less impressive. This number represents a cost crisis. Wages increased by nine percent, yarn prices by 10 percent, dyes and chemicals by 15-50 percent, and energy and operating costs increased.

The situation has compelled many factories to run at a loss, and some have even closed down, said Fazlee Shamim Ehsan, executive president of the BKMEA, to The Business Standard. He said he was cautiously optimistic the industry could start to recover from September as buyers slowly start to replenish inventories after two years of lower buying.


21.77 percent: The Quiet Rise of Non-RMG Sectors

Several sectors are quietly making a strong mark while RMG is dominating. Leather and leather products increased 7.09 percent to US$1.23 billion. Jute and jute goods grew 7.75 percent to US$883.69 million. Home textiles rose 6.52 percent. Engineering products increased 21.77 percent. Exports of agricultural products increased 46.77 percent in June, continuing the trend of strong demand from abroad.

Shipment-level data for April 2025 to March 2026 paints a granular picture: knitted apparel led at US$22.19 billion, followed by woven apparel at US$18.86 billion, home textiles at US$1.42 billion, footwear at US$1.32 billion, engineering products at US$840 million, jute at US$772 million, leather at US$514 million, plastics at US$450 million, and frozen seafood at US$408 million.

The top two categories – knitwear and woven apparel – account for over US$40 billion. However, the margins are growing. Footwear has sold more than a billion dollars. It's coming to home textiles. Plastics are growing. This is the silent shift that doesn't get the news coverage.

The Bottom Line

FY26 was not a year of growth, but it was a year of resilience. Despite global headwinds, Bangladesh's export sector stood firm and exhibited some promising signs of meaningful diversification. The rebound in June provides a base for the new fiscal year.

The real story is in the quiet transition – from a garment dependent economy to one that is slowly, steadily, expanding its industrial base. As Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu, president of the BGMEA, told The Business Standard: "If the domestic challenges can be addressed, the country's exports will perform better in the new fiscal year than in the previous one."


Links used as research for reference:
• https://in.thedollarbusiness.com/blogs/top-bangladesh-export/351402626775
• https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/exports-slip-058-48b-fy26-despite-june-rebound-1478001
• https://www.thedailystar.net/business/economy/news/fy26-exports-slip-despite-42-billion-june-rebound-4214456
• https://www.hawkerbd.com/news_details.php?news_id=921554&news_category_id=6
• https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/bangladesh/khosru-orders-total-overhaul-of-bbs
• https://thedailysky.com/exports-slip-0-58-to-48b-in-fy26-despite-june-rebound/
• https://epb.gov.bd/